Texas Senate Early Findings 2026
To: Interested Parties
From: Stephen Clermont, Change Research
Date: December 1, 2025
Re: Survey Results
The following summarizes key findings from a survey of 1,189 Texas voters interviewed from November 21-26, 2025:
- Representative Jasmine Crockett starts out in a challenging position to win a seat in the U.S. Senate. While she has the highest name recognition of any potential Democratic candidate for this seat, more voters hold an unfavorable opinion of her (40%) than a favorable one (33%). Both Colin Allred and James Talarico have significantly lower unfavorable ratings. Crockett’s unfavorability is comparable to Paxton and Cornyn’s.
| All Voters (%s read across) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav | Neutral | Unfav | Never Heard of | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 33 | 10 | 40 | 16 |
| Colin Allred | 31 | 20 | 28 | 21 |
| James Talarico | 25 | 17 | 9 | 49 |
| Ken Paxton | 28 | 15 | 47 | 10 |
| John Cornyn | 21 | 21 | 44 | 15 |
| Wesley Hunt | 18 | 20 | 17 | 45 |
- Among respondents who have heard of the candidates, James Talarico has the widest advantage in favorability.
| Among Those Who Can Rate (%s read across) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav | Neutral | Unfav | Net Fav | |
| James Talarico | 48 | 33 | 18 | +30 |
| Colin Allred | 39 | 26 | 36 | +3 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 40 | 12 | 48 | -8 |
- **Nearly half (49%) say they would definitely not vote for Jasmine Crockett.**This is higher than for any other candidate in the race. Just 43% say they would definitely not vote for Allred, and 40% feel similarly about Talarico. On the Republican side, 44% say they would definitely not vote for Paxton, 43% say they would definitely not vote for Cornyn, and 31% definitely would not vote for Hunt.
- Jasmine Crockett currently trails both John Cornyn (49% Cornyn-41% Crockett) and Ken Paxton (50% Paxton-42% Crockett). When asked in general whether they would support a Republican or Democratic candidate, 50% support a Republican candidate while 41% support a Democrat. Representative Crockett does not change the underlying partisan dynamic in this state where a Democratic candidate has not won a statewide race for any office since 1994.
- **As of today, Democrats hold an edge on voter enthusiasm for next year.**A majority (54%) of all voters rate their enthusiasm to vote next year as a 10 out of 10. Democrats are more likely to rate their enthusiasm as a 10 (63%) than either Republicans (50%) or Independents (41%). The most enthusiastic voters split about evenly in the generic U.S. Senate vote and in the specific matchups. The people who rate their enthusiasm as 6–9 solidly support the Republican candidate. The less enthusiastic voters are largely undecided. That dynamic is what can make this race more competitive. Ken Paxton is deeply unpopular with Democrats (81% very unfavorable) and Independents (50% very unfavorable). John Cornyn is unpopular with these voters as well (56% very unfavorable with Democrats; 41% very unfavorable with Independents). An unpopular Democratic candidate can drive up enthusiasm among Republicans who do not currently rate their enthusiasm as a 10.
MethodologyPolling was conducted online from November 21-26, 2025. Using Dynamic Online Sampling and text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 1,189 voters in Texas. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and 2024 presidential vote. The final results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. You can see a full methodology statement here, which complies with the requirements of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative. Members of the Transparency Initiative disclose all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings, in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results.